CONTENTS
FOREWORD
PREFACE
INTRODUCTION
PART I. REMINISCENCES OF A TRADER
Chapter 1. FROM HUNGER
Goose Nickels
No Little League
Chapter 2. TO THE REAL WORLD
Frat life
Is Gin a Drink or a Card Game?
Very Little Class
A Glimpse of the Future(s)
Out of school
You're in the Army Now
The Brain Watchers and the Butterfly
Chapter 3. WOOD THAT I WOULD TRADE
Chicago
Learning the Trading Floor
Life in The Fast Lane
Zenith
Chapter 4. SPECTACULAR SPECULATOR
Timber Tumbles
The Arabian Horse Fiasco
Soybean Oil Spreads
Road to Riches
The Death Knell Phone Call
Soybean Oil Gets Slippery
Vertigo
Nadir
Chapter 5. THE QUEST
How Do the Pros Make Money?
Advice and Dissent
PART II. LESSONS LEARNED
Chapter 6. THE PSYCHOLOGICAL DYNAMICS OF LOSS
External vs. Internal Loss
How External Losses Become Internal Losses
The Five Stages of Internal Loss:
Denial, Anger, Bargaining,
Depression, Acceptance.
The Five Stages of Loss and the Market Participant
Discrete Events vs. Continuous Processes
Chapter 7. THE PSYCHOLOGICAL FALLACIES OF RISK
Inherent Risk
Created Risk:
Investing, Trading, Speculating,
Betting, Gambling
Behavioral Characteristics Determine the Activity
A Dangerous Combination
Psychological Fallacies
Profit Motive or Prophet Motive?
Chapter 8. THE PSYCHOLOGICAL CROWD
Emotions and The Crowd
Conventional Views of the Crowd
What is a Crowd?
Characteristics of a Crowd
Two Psychological Crowd Models
Delusion Model: Expectant Attention, Suggestion,
Contagion, Acceptance
Illusion Model: Affirmation, Repetition, Prestige,
Contagion
Emotions
Hope/Fear Paradox
Mania & Panic: Where Hope and Fear Meet The Crowd
PART III. TYING IT ALL TOGETHER
Chapter 9. RULES, TOOLS AND FOOLS
Tying it All Together
Dealing With the Uncertainty of the Future
Decision-Making
The Plan
11 Herbs and Spices
A Plan vs. Loss, Risk and The Crowd
A Plan and Objectivity
CONCLUSION
POSTSCRIPT
EPILOGUE
NOTES
BIBLIOGRAPHY
